Frank Luntz Predicts...?

I have no idea of the veracity of this, but Thomas Schaller, executive editor of The Gadflyer, is saying that Frank Luntz, the Republican polster extraordinaire, thinks Kerry is going to win.

I post it here because Luntz's supposed reasoning, tipsy (and fabricated) as it may be, fits with my own feeling that Kerry is going to win. To me, the bottom line is a combination of the mess in Iraq and Kerry's very strong personal bio. Bush is running on the War, yet when it comes right down to it people are going to feel safe with Kerry. And the only way Bush can deal with that is by going negative. And by going negative, he will hoist himself with his own petard.