Polls Are Consistenly Leaning Towards Bush
I think Kerry has to do two things from here on out:
1) Articulate why people should vote FOR him
2) Emphasize his "likeable" side, so that people can get comfortable with him
As the Zogby folks were saying beginning in June, this is Kerry's race to lose. The swing voters are open to choosing someone new, but they need to be convinced. Otherwise they will stick with what they know (i.e. Bush).
From the latest NYT/CBS Poll:
" Less than seven weeks before Election Day, Senator John Kerry faces strong obstacles in his bid to unseat President George W. Bush, with many voters saying that they are troubled by attacks on Kerry's Vietnam war record and that he has not laid out a case for why he wants to be president, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll."
"The poll findings suggest that Kerry has suffered considerable damage after a summer in which he was the subject of mostly unsubstantiated attacks on his Vietnam war record by a group of veterans with ties to Bush's campaign, as well as a more orchestrated thumping by Bush intended to frame the election around national security concerns and to portray Kerry as a weak leader at a time when the nation was struggling with threats of domestic attack."
Here is a summary of some other recent polls:

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