My $.02 on the Palin Pick

After digesting four days of Palin coverage, here are my $.02.

Helps

• Energizes a large portion of the Republican base (primarily due to the abortion issue)
  
• Helps with fundraising from the base
  
• Reenvigorates McCain's reformer/maverick image
  
• Western roots may help McCain win CO, NM (which Obama may need in order to win)
  

Hurts:

• Basically eliminates the arguments against Obama as Commander-in-Chief
  
• Initial reports are that many swing voters see it as a gimicky pick, turn-off
  
• Some even see the pick as irresponsible, could affect standing with "non-movement" conservatives
  
• Opens the GOP to accusations of flip-floping on the Commander-in-Chief issue
  
• She is being vetted on an ongoing basis, there could be some bombshell in there
  

Basically I see the pick as recognition by the McCain folks that probably they were on a losing trajectory and that the attacks on Obama's ability to be Commander-in-Chief weren't going to cut it, especially after the Biden pick. Strategically is was a good countermove to the Biden pick -- would Obama have picked Biden had he known McCain would pick Palin (and thereby drop the Commander-in-Chief issue)? Possibly not. Probably most important, it energizes the Republican base. If they can hang onto the votes they already have and grab their share of the swing vote, then the Palin pick will help them.

The bottom line is that it was a risky pick with a lot of potential upside and a lot of potential downside. There is also the question about whether any of this really matters or if people will vote for the top of the ticket as they usually do, and disregard the person in the #2 slot. Time will tell. In a couple of weeks the polls will settle down, the post-convention bounces will have passed, and we'll see where things are.