Shields & Brooks On The Campaign

From Shields & Brooks on the Newshour with Jim Lehrer:

"JIM LEHRER: Looking for change, yes. Look, we're not in the prediction business here, but where does the race stand right now? I won't hold you to it.

DAVID BROOKS: It's tightened a little, but John McCain is behind in all the key swing states by a little. And he would have to really win them all to win the presidency.

So he's gotten some traction last week, I think by calling Obama a liberal spender, but it hasn't changed the momentum basically.

MARK SHIELDS: The most admirable thing John McCain did was not to play the race card in this campaign. And for that, he should be -- he deserves some credit. He did some other things that he's not going to feel good about, but certainly not doing that.

I think it's -- the over-under, I'd say, is 5 points, as say they in Las Vegas. I mean, I think he'll win by -- he, Obama -- will win the popular vote somewhere between 4 percent and 5 percent. And I think his...

JIM LEHRER: Electoral College?

MARK SHIELDS: ... Electoral College between 340 and 350.

JIM LEHRER: Does that make sense to you?

DAVID BROOKS: I'd put it a little higher. I actually think it's going to swing Obama's way a little more, 6, 7, 8, 9 points. I think it'll be a pretty convincing win. And I think...

MARK SHIELDS: Well, if that's the case, it will truly be historic, because, other than Franklin Roosevelt, only Lyndon Johnson -- all the Democrats ever elected -- got more than 50.1 percent.

DAVID BROOKS: Absolutely. But I don't think the Democrats will get 60 votes in the Senate, which to me is right now the key thing.

JIM LEHRER: OK. David, Mark, we'll see. We'll see how wrong or right you are. Thank you both."

Shields, Brooks Reflect on Campaigns' Defining Moments | Online NewsHour | October 31, 2008 | PBS