Unofficial Zogby: Kerry Will Win

John Zogby was interviewed on the Daily Show last night. John Stewart asked him point blank, "who is going to win?" Zogby looked back and, without hesitation, responded, "Kerry."

Zogby said that Bush is stuck at around 48%, which is not enough for an incumbent to win because there really aren't many "undecideds" when it comes to an incumbent in a high-profile race. He said that most undecideds are going to vote against the incumbent, they just haven't come to that conclusion yet. And they may not reach that conclusion until they're on their way to their polling station or actually marking their ballot. But that's the way they'll vote.

Zogby's official polling shows the race tied (see below), but I imagine that that's because they don't predict what the undecideds will do in their official polling. That makes sense, because it's their job to interpret what people say or predict who will vote, but not to make stuff up and/or predict what people will say (if that makes sense).

As with all polsters, Zogby gets it right sometimes and wrong sometimes. Here is an article with some more background on Zogby.