Early Exit Polls Favor Kerry

From MyDD, early exit polls (from 2:00 p.m. Eastern) favor Kerry.

	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH

Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57

Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

It is encouraging to see the trend in the key states in favor of Kerry (as opposed to the other way around). Before you take these numbers too seriously however, read what the Mystery Pollster has to say.

I have always been a fan of exit polls. Despite the occasional controversies, exit polls remain among the most sophisticated and reliable political surveys available. They will offer an unparalleled look at today's voters in a way that would be impossible without quality survey data. Having said that, they are still just random sample surveys, possessing the usual limitations plus some that are unique to exit polling (I also remain dubious about weighting telephone surveys to match them, but that is another story for another day).