Final Polls from Fox, Zogby, and Gallup

FoxNews' final poll gives Kerry a two-point lead (48 to 46).

Zogby's final poll gives Bush a one-point lead (48 to 47).

Six weeks ago I heard an interview with a pollster who said that Gallup's "likely voter model" as of the final weekend is as good as it gets. That has stuck in the back of my mind, and today the final poll results, reflecting Gallup's likely voter and undecided voter assumptions, were released. They predict a 49-49 tie with 2% going to "other" candidates.

Two days before the election, the final CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows a dead heat in the presidential race, with President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry each receiving 49% support among likely voters in the final allocated estimate. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners 1% of the vote, and all other candidates an additional 1%.

The poll was conducted Oct. 29-31 among 2,014 national adults and includes 1,573 likely voters, and was weighted to reflect an estimated voter turnout of 60%. The final numbers also reflect Gallup's judgment of how undecided voters will cast their ballots.

Before allocation of the undecided vote, Gallup's likely voter model shows Bush ahead by two points, 49% to 47%, while the results among all registered voters show Kerry with a two-point lead, 48% to 46%.